Central Asia in Transition No61

The Kyrgyzstan Economy:
Latest Developments and Policies

Kamchybek Omurzakov


Copyright (c) 1998 by the Slavic Research Center. All rights reserved.

APPENDIX

Table 1: The Kyrgyzstan economy 1993-1997

  1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
GDP in current prices, mill. som 5.355 12.019 15.606 22.467 30.438
Real GDP growth, % change -25.5 -20.1 -6.2 7.1 10.4
CPI, % change 1363.0 87.2 31.9 30.3 14.8
Budget revenue, % of GDP 16.1 16.7 16.8 16.1 15.1
Budget expenditure, % of GDP 23.5 24.4 29.3 23.3 18.9
Budget deficit, % of GDP -7.4 -7.7 -12.5 -7.2 -3.8
Gross industrial output, % change -24.6 -27.9 -12.5 11.9 46.8
Gross agricultural output, % change -9.8 -18.5 -2.0 46.6 10.7
Exports, US$ mill. 339.6 339.9 408.9 531.1 531.3
Imports, US$ mill. 365.3 315.8 522.3 893.8 623.4
Trade balance, mill. som -25.7 24.1 -113 -362 -92.1
Average som/dollar exchange rate 5.04 10.84 10.82 12.80 17.37
Investment in fixed assets, mill. som 598 1,314 2,909 3,241 3,804.2
Foreign direct investment, US $ mill. 10.0 44.9 188.3 298.9 720.7
Official unemployment rate
% of total labour force
0.3 0.7 2.9 4.5 3.1
Average wages, som 84 233 386 493.3 620
Source: National Statistical Committee.

Table 2: Selected economic indicators.

  1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Est.
1997
Proj.
Output (Percentage change)
GDP at constant prices 3 -5 -19 -16 -20 1.3 5.6 6
Industrial gross output -0.6 -0.3 -26 -25 -28 -12.5 10.8 na
Agricultural gross output 1.3 -10 -5 -10 -15 4 13 na
Composition of output (In % of GDP)
Industry 26 27 32 25 20 16 12 na
Agriculture 32 35 37 39 38 40 47 na
Employment (Percentage change)
Labor force na na 0.4 -3.1 -1.5 2.0 0.6 na
Employment na 0.4 4.7 -8.5 -2.1 -0.3 0.0 na
Unemploym. rate (In % of lab.force) na 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 3.0 4.5 na
Prices and wages (% change)
Consumer prices (annual average) na 85 855 772 229 53 30 27
Consumer prices (end-year) na 170 1,259 1,363 96 32 35 24
Government Sector (In % of GDP)
General government balance 0.3 4.6 -17.4 -14.2 -7.7 -13.5 -6.4 -5.3
General government expenditure
and net lending
38.3 30.3 33.9 39.1 28.6 30.2 23.4 22.3
Monetary Sector (% change)
Broad money (end-year) na 84 428 180 125 78 22 na
Net domestic assets na na 761 307 84 91 25 na
Interest and exchange rates (In % per annum end- year)
Refinancing rate na na na 277 89.5 45.8 45.9 na
Treasury bill rate (three month maturity) na na na na 73 44 64.4 na
Deposit rate (three-month, min/max rates) na na na na na 20/50 15/40 na
Lending rate (min/max rates) na na na na na 35/140 45/120 na
(Denominations as indicated)
Exchange rate (end-year) 1.7 1.7 415 8 10.7 11.0 16.7 na
Exchange rate (annual average) 1.8 1.8 222 6.1 10.9 10.8 12.9 na
External sector (In mln. of US.$)
Current account balance na na -61 -162 -124 -288 -414 na
Trade balance na -41 -74 -166 -119 -263 -373 na
Exports na 3,845 258 335 340 409 529 na
Imports na 3,886 332 501 459 672 902 na
Foreign direct investment, net na na na 10 45 61 31 na
Gross reserves (end-year) incl. Gold na na na 46 97 115 129 na
External debt stock na naa na 290 414 543 746 na
Gross reserves (end-year) incl. Gold na na na 1.1 2.5 2.5 2.0 na
Debt service (In % of merchandise ex) na na na 0.6 5 22 18 na
Memorandum items (Denominations as indi cated)
Population (in mill. beginn. of year) 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 na
GDP (in millions . of Som) 43 93 741 5,355 12,019 16,100 22,500 na
GDP per capita (in US dollars) na na na 195 245 331 379 na
GNP per capita (in US dollars) na na na na 1,559 1,621 na na
at PPP exchange rates

Source: EBRD, Transition report 1997. Notes: Data for 1990-1996 represent official estimates of outturns as reflected in publications from the national authorities, the IMF, the WB, the OECD, PlanEcon and the Institute of International Finance. Data for 1997 reflect EBRD evaluations, partly based on information from these sources.

Table 3: GDP by sectors of Origin, 1991-1996

  1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
(In millions of soms at cur rent prices)
GDP 92.6 741.3 5,354.70 12,019.20 16,145.1 22,467.8
Manufacturing 25.4 238.3 1,344.50 2,461.70 1,931.3 2,676.1
Construction 5.9 29.1 289.6 408.9 992.5 1,183.1
Forestry 0.2 2.1 3.4 9.8 16.6 21.6
Agriculture 32.6 276.2 2,090.60 4,601.30 6,551.5 10,464.0
Other commodity sectors 0.4 2.4 13.2 33.2 36.8 48.7
Transport and construction 1.9 12.3 162.1 331.6 313.8 465.3
Trade and catering 3.9 26.1 349.9 1,162.40 1,774.4 2,372.0
Procurement 0.3 2.4 12.9 10.5 7.6 9.2
Supplies 0.7 12.6 52 36.3 53.8 74.4
Information, computing 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.5 9.0 11.8
services            
Real estate   0.2 0.9 5 8.6 11.3
Commerce   6.5 44.3 22.7 56.8 75.9
Geological services 0.4 1.3 13.1 15.2 40.1 52.2
Market services 3.7 26.6 182.5 600.4 906.8 1,211.3
Banking services 0.5 5.9 129.2 298 293.9 323.0
Non-market services 12.2 64.9 416.3 1,290.70 1,967.5 2,056.7
Taxes on products 4.3 33.8 248.6 740.1 1,184.3 1,411.2
(In % of GDP)
GDP 100 100 100 100 100 100
Manufacturing 27.5 32.1 25.1 20.5 12 11.9
Construction 6.3 3.9 5.4 3.4 6.1 5.3
Forestry 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Agriculture 35.3 37.3 39 38.3 40.6 46.6
Other commodity sectors 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Transport and construction 2 1.7 3 2.8 1.9 2.1
Trade and catering 4.2 3.5 6.5 9.7 11 10.6
Procurement 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0
Supplies 0.8 1.7 1 0.3 0.3 0.3
Information, computing 0.1 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.1
services            
Real estate   0 0 0 0.1 0.1
Commerce   0.9 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.3
Geological services 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2
Market services 4 3.6 3.4 5 5.6 5.4
Banking services 0.5 0.8 2.4 2.5 1.8 1.4
Non-market services 13.2 8.8 7.8 10.7 12.2 9.2
Taxes on products 4.7 4.6 4.6 6.2 7.3 6.3

Sources: National Statistical Committee; IMF staff estimates