Volume 16 (1998)

The Regional Problem and the Break-Up of the State:
The Case of Yugoslavia
Časlav Ocić

The Nature and the Scope of the Regional Problem
Regional Policies and Changes in the Institutional Framework
Regional Development Levels: Grouping of Regions
Structural Change: Shift-Share Analysis
Efficiency: Shift-Share Analysis
Interregional Relations: Autarky
Some Other Results of the Regions' Development
Regional Development Costs: Ratios of Investment
Interregional Income (Re)distribution
Regional Convergence or Divergence?
Equality: The Failure of the Positive Discrimination Model
"The National Question" and Nationalism
Separatism: Economic and Political
A Long Journey from Utopia to Dystopia
Selected Bibliography
Data Sources & Documents
Appendix  (1)  (2)

Some Other Results of the Regions' Development
With only a quick glance11 at regional indicator values of those (economic and noneconomic) aspects of development that were not covered by quantitative analysis we can notice that, depending on the point in time we choose for our assessment, the data can be either the determinants or the consequences of growth. All indicators of demographic development display changes in accordance with the standard conception of modernization. Thus, for example, an increased number of households is accompanied by a decline in the number of household members. This rule applies to all regions except Kosovo-Metohia, where a rising number of household members occurred. Life expectancy for both males and females improved in all regions without exception. Some of these indicators, however, in terms of the magnitude of their change, also reveal a strong influence of the concept of socialist industrialization. A sharp decline in the percentage of agricultural population, from a factor greater than five (in Montenegro) to a factor greater than two and a half (in central Serbia), is unparalleled in the world. One of its consequences was that the percentage of the urban population more than doubled in all regions.
An increase in the relative significance of the GNP and the value of industrial fixed assets also speaks about the results of the development concept, which was understood to be industrialization. Thus, for example, in Montenegro, the share of the manufacturing industry in GNP in 1987 was more than seven times larger than in 1947, whereas on the Yugoslav level this share was more than twice as large as in 1947. The share of industrial fixed assets also rose considerably. Macedonia achieved the largest increase of industrial fixed assets, of some 70%. The ideological impact of this concept of development was reflected in the change of GNP's property structure. The share of the private sector in the GNP on the Yugoslav level fell 2.3 times from 1952 to 1990. The steepest decline occurred in Slovenia and central Serbia. In Slovenia the private sector's share in the GNP fell 2.7 times, while in central Serbia it fell 2.6 times. An increased share of exports in the GNP shows that the economy was opening up, while an increase in the relative importance of imports of raw materials and intermediate goods speaks of the increased import-dependence of the economy.
The change in the social development indicators also reflects an important egalitarian component of the development concept thanks to which special importance was attached to the social "superstructure." Thus, in 1988 the number of medical doctors per 10,000 inhabitants of Yugoslavia was almost six times greater than in 1952, with the highest increase occurring in Macedonia and Kosovo-Metohia. The number of doctors per 10,000 inhabitants increased by a factor of ten in Macedonia, and by a factor of nine in Kosovo-Metohia. There was also a great rise in the number of junior college and university students. The sharpest increase was recorded in Kosovo-Metohia with zero students per 1000 persons in 1947/48 school year, and as many as 19 in 1988/89, which represents the highest value of this indicator in comparison to other regions. In the observed period, central Serbia had the smallest, 2.5-fold increase in the number of students per 1000 persons. The living-standard indicators rose sharply as well. The proportion of households with a TV set was 47 times higher in 1981 than in 1961, and the proportion of households with a passenger car was almost 26 times higher. The rise of these indicators was again the sharpest in underdeveloped regions, particularly in Kosovo-Metohia.
Underdeveloped regions invested enormous effort and resources into schools, hospitals, dwellings, the mass media and the like in order to become "modern." However, they were more concerned with quantity (indicators) than with quality. The expansion of social institutions involved a direct copying of the developed regions' behavioural patterns and systems of values ("demonstration effect"), which caused the "revolution of rising expectations,"soon to be replaced, however, by the "revolution of rising disappointment and frustration." But the social dimension was not instrumental in bringing about the expected dynamics of the economic side of development. New rules of the game were equally visible in consumption: here as well, modernization fostered new needs and aspirations. Moreover, suddenly increased appetites for the consumption of "modern"goods and services created a profound dissatisfaction with traditional living conditions, especially in rural areas. The outcome is known: the mass exodus to industrial centres in urban areas. A shortage of the labour force in the agricultural sector was accompanied by huge urban unemployment. This imbalance had far-reaching consequences: a growing pauperization of the people who remained in rural areas and of those who were caught in the trap of chronic urban unemployment. Development through modernization (i.e. industrialization) resulted in income differences between individuals and social groups as well as between urban and rural areas. Under the circumstances -contrary to all expectations -economic and social dualism increased. Both types of dualism conspicuously manifested themselves in rising unemployment.